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 Natural Dyson FFA 
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Any wild guess how many undiscovered natural dyson are still out there?

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Last edited by MiracleOne on Tue Jan 21, 2014 2:55 am, edited 1 time in total.



Tue Jan 21, 2014 2:50 am
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It's been almost 2 years since I found my last Dyson, ....and I scan quite frequently

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Tue Jan 21, 2014 2:53 am
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there are exactly 0 unscanned natural Dysons that have any respectable amount of Artifact richness.

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Tue Jan 21, 2014 3:33 am
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PLURVIOUS wrote:
there are exactly 0 unscanned natural Dysons that have any respectable amount of Artifact richness.



^
Last time I heard on an unscanned nat Dyson was crappy. Mining > Artifact > Research.
All the goods are gone or we all have 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000001% in finding any.

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Tue Jan 21, 2014 3:41 am
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PLURVIOUS wrote:
there are exactly 0 unscanned natural Dysons that have any respectable amount of Artifact richness.


Thats a silly claim to make. No one knows for sure other than the person who has access to the game's planet database.


Tue Jan 21, 2014 4:12 am
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can someone hack to the planet database and tell us how many unocc dyson available for scanning? :mrgreen:


Tue Jan 21, 2014 4:55 am
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maxer wrote:
PLURVIOUS wrote:
there are exactly 0 unscanned natural Dysons that have any respectable amount of Artifact richness.


Thats a silly claim to make. No one knows for sure other than the person who has access to the game's planet database.


I can provide an estimate based on the time when last worthwhile dysons are scanned. At a quick estimate, assuming that no such planet is found in the last year or so by anyone, there would be around .001% chance of existing such a planet.

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Tue Jan 21, 2014 5:18 am
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like you said, it might be possible to give a good estimate % if we able to document all scanned Dyson. Which is not possible....

Example: Planet (Terra VL Mega) : The probe returns with data:
0 other ship(s) have scanned this planet

....but if we review our recently scanned good planet, this could be a clue saying that there are still a few unscanned Dyson?! Am I right??

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Tue Jan 21, 2014 6:55 am
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MiracleOne wrote:
like you said, it might be possible to give a good estimate % if we able to document all scanned Dyson. Which is not possible....

Example: Planet (Terra VL Mega) : The probe returns with data:
0 other ship(s) have scanned this planet

....but if we review our recently scanned good planet, this could be a clue saying that there are still a few unscanned Dyson?! Am I right??


Depend on what you consider to be good(and I assume you mean unocc planet). To me personally, right now, no natural mining/research planet short of a dyson can be considered good. As for arti, I'd need VL ER at least to be considered good, with -1 richness for each +1 size or +2 richness for each -1 size. Anything less might be insufficient on the scale of being "good" and might, in fact, be purged by some players and can't really be used as a standard. If we can find an agreement on what a planet everyone would consider good, roughly the % comparison of planets are that good or better naturally versus natural dyson(that is to say, the ratio at which the planet exist naturally), and the amount of such planet scanned in a "clean" condition, then we might get an estimate of clean dyson remaining.
I'd say for the top players, the richness/size standard will probably be higher...
I haven't scanned any clean planet I will consider to be "good" at my current standard for my last 500 or so planets scanned(thou at the time of scan, some lesser planet was considered as good). I will be going on another scan run sometime soon, probably for around 1k planet, we'll see.

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Tue Jan 21, 2014 8:44 am
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It's not a "silly" claim. Prove me wrong and go scan one. Do the math: there are not even 5 million planets in total. The top 500 players scanning 100 planets per day will collectively scan 5 million planets in 100 days. Let's assume only the top 100 players scan 100 per day; they will get through every planet in 500 days. Bottom line is, in 3+ years, they've ALL been scanned, not just every Dyson, but every planet. The reason you see 0 other players scanned is because we keep purging and scanning.

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Tue Jan 21, 2014 2:05 pm
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Scanned a 43x arti unocc on Saturday. It's a 'silly' claim.

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Tue Jan 21, 2014 2:14 pm
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NeRd135 wrote:
Scanned a 43x arti unocc on Saturday. It's a 'silly' claim.


Ok. Lie about it all you want. How about you get a fake screen shot for us, maybe that will be more convincing.

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Tue Jan 21, 2014 2:47 pm
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Wait. I take it all back. I just scanned a natural dyson, 47x. I trust you'll take my word for it.

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Tue Jan 21, 2014 2:56 pm
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PLURVIOUS wrote:
It's not a "silly" claim. Prove me wrong and go scan one. Do the math: there are not even 5 million planets in total. The top 500 players scanning 100 planets per day will collectively scan 5 million planets in 100 days. Let's assume only the top 100 players scan 100 per day; they will get through every planet in 500 days. Bottom line is, in 3+ years, they've ALL been scanned, not just every Dyson, but every planet. The reason you see 0 other players scanned is because we keep purging and scanning.


Your math is dumb. The players do not all scan a different planet everytime. Also there are not 500 players scanning 100 planets a day or anthing even close to that.

And i do not have to prove anything. My assumptions are based on the fact that there are millions of planets out there that are unoccupied and that we know a dyson has at least a 1 in 4,905,495 chance to be scanned since they have been scanned bedore. So there is a decent chance of an unscanned dyson being out there still.

Your claim on the other hand could use some proof other than your really faulty mathematical assumptions but its fine, after reading your response i really rather not have a conversation with you from this point on.


Tue Jan 21, 2014 4:18 pm
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PLURVIOUS wrote:
It's not a "silly" claim. Prove me wrong and go scan one. Do the math: there are not even 5 million planets in total. The top 500 players scanning 100 planets per day will collectively scan 5 million planets in 100 days. Let's assume only the top 100 players scan 100 per day; they will get through every planet in 500 days. Bottom line is, in 3+ years, they've ALL been scanned, not just every Dyson, but every planet. The reason you see 0 other players scanned is because we keep purging and scanning.


Mathematics doesn't work like that
Assume that 50,000 scans are performed daily on average for the last 2 years, that is ~35,000,000 scans.
The chance that one specific planet is never scanned is:
(4905494/4905495)^35,000,000=0.00080 or 0.080%. Low, isn't it?
But here is the catcher. If we assume there were say 1000 dyson planets(might be high, but we aren't trying to be exact here)
The chance that at least one of them is not scanned would be
1-(1-0.080%)^1000=54.9%

And statistically speaking, anything over 5% makes it unsafe to assume there is none.
Of course, the actual scan performed etc might be different. To say that it is statistically significant(significant, not certain), you'd need ~50M scans. To say that is reasonably certain, you'd need ~100M scans.
Whereas at the current rate of scan, 100M will happen in 2 years, to say so about past 2 years might not be correct. It also might be correct, I honestly won't know.

Your other claim however, that all planets are scanned, would result in the following.
35M: 100% not true(well, not really 100% but my calculator rounded it to this because it's so close)
50M: 100% not true
100M: 6.8% not true, statically significant to say that your claim to be insufficiently supported
110M: 0.90% not true, statically significant to say that your claim is likely to be valid
130M: small enough to say that you can be reasonably certain.

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Tue Jan 21, 2014 4:39 pm
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One of my legion mates found a 47x arti dyson around christmas time, was very jealous. Still some out there but the chances are incredibly low

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Tue Jan 21, 2014 4:44 pm
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Oh, there is one more things to consider:
there are players who quit or reset or whatever without giving away all their best planets. It is possible that new unocc planets are added into the pool via the method of an occupied planet become disowned. This doesn't happen very often, but for every such dropped planet, there could be one in the pool easily for an upward of half a year. So...

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Tue Jan 21, 2014 4:47 pm
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MiracleOne wrote:
Example: Planet (Terra VL Mega) : The probe returns with data: 0 other ship(s) have scanned this planet


Uy23e wrote:
Depend on what you consider to be good(and I assume you mean unocc planet).


Heehee... trust me Uy23e, i definitely know what consider a GOOD planet, you don't have to explain to me lol!!

Anyway, what I m trying to point out is... if I m still able to be the first person to scan a VL Terra 2x Mega... doesn't that also say there are still hidden Dyson out there somewhere?!

Thanks again everyone in sharing some feedback with this topic
:mrgreen:

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Wed Jan 22, 2014 3:19 am
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MiracleOne wrote:
MiracleOne wrote:
Example: Planet (Terra VL Mega) : The probe returns with data: 0 other ship(s) have scanned this planet


Uy23e wrote:
Depend on what you consider to be good(and I assume you mean unocc planet).


Heehee... trust me Uy23e, i definitely know what consider a GOOD planet, you don't have to explain to me lol!!

Anyway, what I m trying to point out is... if I m still able to be the first person to scan a VL Terra 2x Mega... doesn't that also say there are still hidden Dyson out there somewhere?!

Thanks again everyone in sharing some feedback with this topic
:mrgreen:


Not necessarily, because the amount of planet might be different. 10x more frequent means almost 10x(not quite, depend on number of scans done) chance that an unscanned exist.

Also note the point I made about reset/delete accounts. Whereas it's true that both VL 2x and dyson might become unoccupied via this method, there is a good chance(great in fact) that a player only have limited GP to abondon and give away planets before this happen. And chances are, they'd give away all the dysons so no new unoccupied dyson is generated in this way. On the other hand, whereas VL 2x is a good planet naturally, it won't even make the top 50 list for many players. So if any of those players end up quitting or resetting, a lot of such planet would become unocc and unscanned again whereas there probably won't be any dyson ones. That said, with a likely semi-frequent addition to the pool, chance that such planet is actually depleted is much much lower than the chance that dyson is depleted.

Still, can't say for certain that they are, just showing you the huge difference in probability such that it cannot be used as evidence.

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Wed Jan 22, 2014 7:03 am
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Every planet has been scanned (therefore, by extension, every Dyson has been scanned). With tens of thousands of players performing thousands of scans over the course of 4 years, it's a pretty safe bet that every planet has shown up on someone's planet list at some point in time. A given planet may have "0 other ships scanned", but that's because it got purged who knows how many times over.

Look at it this way: There are 5 million planets. GL has been around 4 years; if 1,250,000 planets were scanned each year, they'd all be scanned by now. Dividing that by 10,000 players (and Facebook used to report more than that), you get 125. That's right - 125 planets in a YEAR, and we've hit 5,000,000. Is it unreasonable to conclude that a player scans 125 planets over the course of an entire year? I do more than that in a single mini scan run.

This is why you can do a scan run and not get anything better than Very Large Rich. All the decent natural planets have long since been scanned and occupied. Most players are building, buying, or invading the good planets they have.

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Fri Jan 24, 2014 1:21 am
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