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 "Scan Chance Rating" - mathematical formula? 
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Joined: Tue Dec 14, 2010 1:58 am
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Post "Scan Chance Rating" - mathematical formula?
Having searched the wiki and forum, i have found many interesting people saying many interesting things, however, there appears to be no applied theorycrafting that mathematically describes the relationship between scanning power and number of planets in a players database.

My question for the community is thus, what is the formula for scanning power to scan a new planet with regard to total number of planets already found(planetary cloaking aside)

ie: x scanning power = y maximum in database.


Wed Mar 23, 2011 11:33 pm
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Joined: Tue Nov 16, 2010 3:37 am
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Post Re: "Scan Chance Rating" - mathematical formula?
I don't think anyone but Dan knows.

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Wed Mar 23, 2011 11:39 pm
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Joined: Sat May 22, 2010 6:22 pm
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Post Re: "Scan Chance Rating" - mathematical formula?
I can't really remember, but last 2 times I did a scan blitz I think I saw it as follows:

"planets" means total planets scanned
"scan" means scanning power

If planets > scan/10, then chance = 0%
If planets < scan/20, then chance = 100%

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Wed Mar 23, 2011 11:45 pm
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Post Re: "Scan Chance Rating" - mathematical formula?
I actually have enough energy with a cube that I could reach "grayed out" scan button by scanning repeatedly at like 5200 scan. I have 473 planets after that. It's actually a diminishing % formula, in that once you get under 100% it drops rapidly, then starts to drop more slowly until you get to under 5%, somewhere under 5% before, it would not allow you to scan anymore. The higher the scan, the more planets you can drag out of this low % portion. At smaller scan values like up to 500 or 1000, it may look more like that formula, scan/10 = max planets. That might be a good rough approximation. I actually prefer the % chance we used to have, and not the "good/fair" buckets which are just for each 20-25% increment. What needed to actually happen is when you fail from cloak, it said "You scans could not lock on to the planet's flux" or whatever. Since that never got fixed, ppl were still confused why it was failing; obscuring the % is basically because ppl didn't realize that 99% (really 100%) means 100% chance of getting phase 1 right, and phase 2 MIGHT be a cloak check that fails.

From my other post:

I observed right after the planet count increases, usually 50-100k adjustment, go do a scan run. I have found most of the scanned planets were 0 other ppl scanned, suggesting it takes from the pool of new planets at least a % of your scans. The failure message was still wrong last time I did it, in that it doesn't say the cloaking is blocking you, but there's no other explanation. Higher scan should result in less failures from this cause; it was 10-15% at 5700 scan @ 99%. See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q40VVv7vIhM for a scan run video; "Scan failed to find a new planet." was the message for cloak failure (I guess). I'm not sure if it's really supposed to calculate "almost 99%" and drops off or something before it shows that it drops. The other solution is a % of scans are (if not already) find/create a random new world, something like 25%, but I know there is a planet/active player balancing going on as well. The planet distribution is unlikely to change for the newly generated planets in the pool.

-- I will try to actually use this video to get an approximate algorithm. Assuming it hasn't changed (and I don't think it has other than to cover up the exact %), and you can see how many planets I get at that scan exactly before it drops < 99% , and how it tends to drop off in % chance on the old system in that video link.

See also : viewtopic.php?f=4&t=3449

5719 scan:
planet/chance

345 = 100%
368 = 50%
385 = 33%
399-400 = 25%
411-412 = 20%
428 = 15%

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Thu Mar 24, 2011 12:19 am
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Joined: Tue Dec 14, 2010 1:58 am
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Post Re: "Scan Chance Rating" - mathematical formula?
So were suposing there to be a scaling element involved as that explains the % sucess rate and varying values of each %, from my own experience i have done scans at 99%, finding a planet made it 95%, the next planet made it 80% and so on.

So then, does this "scaling value element" relate to player rank, scanning power directly, or number of planets in the whole galaxy, or number of planets in the players database list.

ie; scanning power - (or / ) "scaling value" = total number of planets that can be held in list before being unable to scan further.

some numbers ive been getting from asking around are

rank 359 : scan power 6097 : 450 maximum planets
rank 466 : scan power 5098 : 469 maximum planets

so as we can see there is definately a difference according to rank, in these 2 real examples the lower ranked player has higher scan but roughly equal total planets. if we presume the scaling value to be according to rank then its reasonable to state that scan values are worth more to lower levels. this tracks from what we see with new players who are able to scan 20-30 planets with basic non researched scanner equipment.

scan power affected by x = maximum planets ,using the above data this formula comes within a 5% error

(((scan - rank) / current total)* rank) /10 = current total [-+5%]
(((6097-359) / 450) *359) /10 = 457.8
(((5098-466) / 469) *466) /10 = 460

while this is pretty, it doesnt tell us anything, the 5% error marjin is unaceptable, the division of 10 at the end comes from nowhere, and the formula requires the maximum value already being a known figure(which was what were trying to determine in the first place lol )

possible other factors, total number of planets in galaxy, rank*4, current planets found


Thu Mar 24, 2011 2:11 am
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Post Re: "Scan Chance Rating" - mathematical formula?
I don't think rank factors into it, only scanning and amount of planets scanned.


Thu Mar 24, 2011 3:00 am
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Post Re: "Scan Chance Rating" - mathematical formula?
5719 scan, complete run:

% and planetcount
Code:
99   345   43   374   23   403
98   346   42   375   23   404
94   347   41   376   22   405
91   348   40   377   22   406
88   349   39   378   22   407
85   350   38   379   21   408
82   351   37   380   21   409
80   352   37   381   21   410
77   353   36   382   20   411
75   354   35   383   20   412
73   355   34   384   20   413
70   356   33   385   19   414
68   357   33   386   19   415
66   358   32   387   19   416
64   359   31   388   18   417
62   360   31   389   18   418
61   361   30   390   18   419
59   362   29   391   17   420
57   363   29   392   17   421
56   364   28   393   17   422
54   365   28   394   17   423
53   366   27   395   16   424
51   367   27   396   16   425
50   368   26   397   16   426
49   369   26   398   16   427
48   370   25   399   15   428
46   371   25   400   15   429
45   372   24   401      
44   373   24   402      

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Thu Mar 24, 2011 3:51 am
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Post Re: "Scan Chance Rating" - mathematical formula?
BinaryMan

Thank you so much. My last scan was December and I complained. The very next day or two the planet count increased by 100,000+
My legion mate did and scan and got a successful run.

DAN you really should have the program constantly add planets rather than 50-100K at a time. I would imagine easier said than done.
I'll have to watch for the next planet increase to do my next scan; need to purchase one more expensive scanner.

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Thu Mar 24, 2011 4:02 am
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Post Re: "Scan Chance Rating" - mathematical formula?
No, I don't think that matters; when the "new never scanned" planet pool gets low, either automatically or Dan manually adds a batch of planets generated randomly to it. Everyone seems to pull a certain % of these planets so that they are not all overlapping all the time with already scanned planets. So it doesn't necessarily matter if you scan right after these are added, I just always felt that it couldn't hurt ;)

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Thu Mar 24, 2011 5:44 am
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Joined: Tue Dec 14, 2010 1:58 am
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Post Re: "Scan Chance Rating" - mathematical formula?
Has anyone had any new thoughts on this subject?


Tue Mar 29, 2011 9:10 pm
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