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| Planet invasion odds http://galaxylegion.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=6435 |
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| Author: | Smithe [ Fri Apr 29, 2011 2:21 am ] |
| Post subject: | Planet invasion odds |
What are the odds of successfully invading a planet with 3706 combined attack/defense if i have 4920 attack with buffs and 175 invasion ability. also, is invasion ability buffed by attack buffs? |
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| Author: | Chris24markey [ Fri Apr 29, 2011 2:24 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Planet invasion odds |
yes your inv stats are calculated by your atk so an atk buff would give you a greater shot or higher percentage as for the calculation not sure the exact way it is calculated. |
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| Author: | Smithe [ Fri Apr 29, 2011 2:28 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Planet invasion odds |
Well, that means i now have 4920 attack and 232 invasion attack. also, take note the planets stats are after i throw debuffs on them. it would be nice if dan could supply us a formula for invasion success calculations. |
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| Author: | FerrusManus [ Fri Apr 29, 2011 3:45 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Planet invasion odds |
I've noticed that if your attack is above the planet's attack and defense it's 1-(planet stats)/(your stats), possible a few percent higher after a recent change. I think yours is high enough above the planet's that that equation is about right. |
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| Author: | Smithe [ Fri Apr 29, 2011 3:54 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Planet invasion odds |
that formula makes no sense. the answer to 1-5152/3706 = 0.3 (1dp) |
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| Author: | FerrusManus [ Fri Apr 29, 2011 4:01 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Planet invasion odds |
Smithe wrote: that formula makes no sense. the answer to 1-5152/3706 = 0.3 (1dp) It does make sense; you misread it and mixed up your stats and the planet's stats. EDIT: Actually, it looks like you calculated it right and just copied it down wrong. That answer is correct, .3, 30% chance. |
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| Author: | Smithe [ Fri Apr 29, 2011 4:09 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Planet invasion odds |
oh lol. sorry, i thought you meant percentage not decimal chance. you should have said X100. wait, 30% chance? that can't be right. i thought that it was 50% when it's equal to attack/defence? In fact it's not. i messed planet stats and my stats around the wrong way. but anyway. you should change your formula to (planet stats/Your attack)*100 |
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| Author: | FerrusManus [ Fri Apr 29, 2011 4:13 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Planet invasion odds |
Smithe wrote: oh lol. sorry, i thought you meant percentage not decimal chance. you should have said X100. wait, 30% chance? that can't be right. i thought that it was 50% when it's equal to attack/defence? In fact it's not. i messed planet stats and my stats around the wrong way. but anyway. you should change your formula to (planet stats/Your attack)*100 I will not change my formula; I said that was the chance, not the percent chance. On the point though, I've heard what you heard as well, but it's not true. Last time I had a tough invasion my attack was 50% higher than the planets stats, and I had a 39% chance to successfully invade (which suggest a +6% or something). |
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| Author: | Smithe [ Fri Apr 29, 2011 4:14 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Planet invasion odds |
I always thought it was 50% when attack equaled planet defence/attack. I wish Dan would inform us. |
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| Author: | Smithe [ Fri Apr 29, 2011 11:49 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Planet invasion odds |
I believe the formula is wrong. i invaded successfully after tripping an alarm sentry (+600 defense) |
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| Author: | FerrusManus [ Fri Apr 29, 2011 2:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Planet invasion odds |
Smithe wrote: I believe the formula is wrong. i invaded successfully after tripping an alarm sentry (+600 defense) So? |
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| Author: | Smithe [ Fri Apr 29, 2011 10:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Planet invasion odds |
so your theory has about a 70% chance of being wrong. |
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| Author: | 328mark [ Fri Apr 29, 2011 10:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Planet invasion odds |
there is no way to predict invasion success all you can do is load your dice before throwing them...they can still come up bust |
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| Author: | FerrusManus [ Fri Apr 29, 2011 10:48 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Planet invasion odds |
Smithe wrote: so your theory has about a 70% chance of being wrong. I don't know what you're talking about. I did say that equation only works if your attack is somewhat higher, because as your attack approaches planet attack it changes so that you'll always have some chance. I think that's somewhere down near 10% or so, though I can't say for certain. Other than that, I still believe it is correct, you just don't understand chance. |
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| Author: | Xerondria [ Sun May 15, 2011 10:59 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Planet invasion odds |
Here's how my planet conquest went - note it was undefended **** Defense 70 Attack 0 Cloak 40 Pop 260 Use Ion Storm Charge -15% planet defense for one hour Grid Console A temporary firmware package, increasing your ship defenses by 20% for 2 hours (probably didn't need this) Crimson Obelisk Magnifies the intensity of weapon systems, temporarily increasing attack by 10% Attack 157 Defense 173 Scan 21 Cloak 102 You (Winner) **** Attack: 157 / Defense: 173 Attack: 0 / Defense: 64 You gain 8 [ Shields Left: 113 ] -12 25 further rounds of damage to Pop between 7 - 13 per round Energy used 26 x 5 = 150 You have successfully conquered ****!! You gain 1 Green Badge **** Very Large Terra Planet Rare Controlled by You Resources Colony Structures Actions Effects (1) Resource Availability Production Mining Very Rich 13.5 units/hr Artifact 3x Mega Rich 30 units/hr Research Extremely Abundant 10.5 units/hr 11 / 260 Population 0 New Colony, Recently Conquered, Controller: Tina Tuggle (Rank 16) Planet Guards Legion Bonus Total Defenses: 64 0 0% 64 Attack: 0 0 0% 0 Cloak: 40 0 0% 40 57 / 57 Space Used Name Effect Options Surface Mine Mining: 1 Surface Scanner Artifact: 1 Research Station Research: 1 Surface Bunkers Defense: 25 Surface Bunkers Defense: 25 Surface Mine Mining: 1 Surface Scanner Artifact: 1 Surface Mine Mining: 1 Processing Core Mining: 1, Artifact: 1 Relay Tower Research: 1, Artifact: 1 Refining Lab Mining: 1, Research: 1 Surface Scanner Artifact: 1 Research Station Research: 1 Research Station Research: 1 Surface Mine Mining: 1 Surface Scanner Artifact: 1 Space Elevator Artifact: 1, Population: 50 Surface Bunkers Defense: 25 Habitation Modules Population: 20 Spy Uplink Research: 1, Cloak: 40 Space Elevator Artifact: 1, Population: 50 Action Options Scan Sharing This planet's location was shared to you. Expires in: ? Artifacts Abandon Confirm? Use Planet flux to remove from player scanned list |
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| Author: | Commonwealth <TK> [ Sun May 15, 2011 1:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Planet invasion odds |
328mark wrote: there is no way to predict invasion success all you can do is load your dice before throwing them...they can still come up bust There is, i have invaded nearly 30 planets. Failed alot too, from my experience, here is what i can tell If your Attack, Including artifacts buffs, Must Be Double the Planets Total Defence and Attack combined, Which includes Planet artifact Buffs To score a 90% invasion chance success. If your attack and planet total defence are equal, then you have 50% chance of successful invasion. Any lower, don't risk it, i only invade planets when their defence are half my Max attack If you want to increase your Odds of invasion, Activate all you attack boosters, Crystals, Amplifiers, Obelisks, Build all your 8 of your best cannons. Drop Ion storm Charges, Orbital Mass Disruptors, Warp the guards, and then proceed with attacking the planet. Engineered Virus aren't particularly useful and Do not contribute to your invasion success. Crimson Cluster Missiles help alot, they is a limited number of them though, Paradox Generators can be used as Back up if you happen to fail. Quantum Bio-Vaporisers may seem awesome. But they are surprisingly useless, pointless dropping quantum bombs on a planet with 30k Def and then you fail invasion with 3% chance of success... |
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| Author: | 328mark [ Sun May 15, 2011 3:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Planet invasion odds |
c/w you have just proved my point  all the buffs and superiority in attack etc will only give you a 90% success chance...or a 10% fail chance in other words thats what i meant by loading your dice...and the bust comes if you fall into that tenth percentile. |
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| Author: | thunderbolta [ Sun May 15, 2011 4:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Planet invasion odds |
I recently managed to invade a mega colossal 1x mega rich aquatic planet, with alot of luck. The planet 600 attack 450 defence 0 cloak Me 549 attack Stryll Pathogen (+300 invasion attack, drop from Sketh, Stryll Predator) Ancient Crystal Foci Crimson Obelisk Got it down... virused it so that I had the energy to actually invade :S 10mins later I attempted to take it. I succeeded. 549 +5% 576 +20% 692 +300 992.  Planet: 1050 invasion defence (attack+defence+i.defence) Wow I was lucky looking back at it.  
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| Author: | RavenDark13 [ Thu Oct 27, 2011 9:11 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Planet invasion odds |
Commonwealth <TK> wrote: 328mark wrote: there is no way to predict invasion success all you can do is load your dice before throwing them...they can still come up bust There is, i have invaded nearly 30 planets. Failed alot too, from my experience, here is what i can tell If your Attack, Including artifacts buffs, Must Be Double the Planets Total Defence and Attack combined, Which includes Planet artifact Buffs To score a 90% invasion chance success. If your attack and planet total defence are equal, then you have 50% chance of successful invasion. Any lower, don't risk it, i only invade planets when their defence are half my Max attack If you want to increase your Odds of invasion, Activate all you attack boosters, Crystals, Amplifiers, Obelisks, Build all your 8 of your best cannons. Drop Ion storm Charges, Orbital Mass Disruptors, Warp the guards, and then proceed with attacking the planet. Engineered Virus aren't particularly useful and Do not contribute to your invasion success. Crimson Cluster Missiles help alot, they is a limited number of them though, Paradox Generators can be used as Back up if you happen to fail. Quantum Bio-Vaporisers may seem awesome. But they are surprisingly useless, pointless dropping quantum bombs on a planet with 30k Def and then you fail invasion with 3% chance of success... This is the closest to a plain English explanation I've ever read on this subject. Thanks for the info. |
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| Author: | FerrusManus [ Thu Oct 27, 2011 9:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Planet invasion odds |
RavenDark13 wrote: Commonwealth <TK> wrote: 328mark wrote: there is no way to predict invasion success all you can do is load your dice before throwing them...they can still come up bust There is, i have invaded nearly 30 planets. Failed alot too, from my experience, here is what i can tell If your Attack, Including artifacts buffs, Must Be Double the Planets Total Defence and Attack combined, Which includes Planet artifact Buffs To score a 90% invasion chance success. If your attack and planet total defence are equal, then you have 50% chance of successful invasion. Any lower, don't risk it, i only invade planets when their defence are half my Max attack If you want to increase your Odds of invasion, Activate all you attack boosters, Crystals, Amplifiers, Obelisks, Build all your 8 of your best cannons. Drop Ion storm Charges, Orbital Mass Disruptors, Warp the guards, and then proceed with attacking the planet. Engineered Virus aren't particularly useful and Do not contribute to your invasion success. Crimson Cluster Missiles help alot, they is a limited number of them though, Paradox Generators can be used as Back up if you happen to fail. Quantum Bio-Vaporisers may seem awesome. But they are surprisingly useless, pointless dropping quantum bombs on a planet with 30k Def and then you fail invasion with 3% chance of success... This is the closest to a plain English explanation I've ever read on this subject. Thanks for the info. That's all the obvious stuff, there's a thread with the actual equation. Essentially, (invasion attack) / (3 * invasion defense). |
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