Might be answering my own question here...
A while ago, I exploded a Firewall trap on my nemesis which took his cloak down 99.9%.
He has almost no scan capability.
I have 275+ cloak.
Here's the last few hack attempts against him...
Stole research from him
Fail
Fail
Stole research from him
Fail
Fail
He counter hacks and steals research from me
I get pissed off and log out
By this, my guess is that as long as you are able to hack someone, the probabilities of critical hack, success, failure, critical failure, etc. are EXACTLY the same. If so, I think that should be rethought.
If I have 275+ cloak and he has zero cloak and zero scan, I should have a much higher chance of success and critical success. Likewise, if i tried to hack someone with much higher cloak than me, the game should give me a much higher chance of critical failure. Wouldn't that make much more sense???
At the very least, if my cloak is far superior (like > 100%) more than his cloak I don't think he should have ANY chance of critically counter hacking me when I hack him.