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Artifacts - Keeping a Tally to determine pull ratio
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Author:  Threadbare [ Tue Aug 16, 2011 1:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Artifacts - Keeping a Tally to determine pull ratio
I'm keeping a tally of all my artifact pulls that are over 20k (so each pull also includes the chance of a Mass Storage Pod). I have some initial results below. I'll keep this up and post occasionally until I get bored with writing these down.

Thus far it does seem like some artifacts are more common than others, but until I get more pulls I won't know for sure. Make of the data what you'd like!

Total Pulls: 427

Alarm Sentry 5 1.17%
Alien Data Disk 9 2.11%
Ancient Crystal Foci 8 1.87%
Android Helmsman 8 1.87%
Android Scientist 1 0.23%
Calming Amplifier 6 1.41%
Cloning Pods 13 3.04%
Containment Cage 7 1.64%
Containment Missile 8 1.87%
Continuum Beacon 11 2.58%
Crimson Obelisk 12 2.81%
Dark Pyramid 8 1.87%
Disarming Bomb 6 1.41%
Drannik Saboteur 6 1.41%
Durtanium Brackets 6 1.41%
EMP Sphere 7 1.64%
Engineered Virus 6 1.41%
Flux Probe 6 1.41%
Grav-Whip Trap 8 1.87%
Grid Console 12 2.81%
Halycon Trap 11 2.58%
Ion Repulsor Charge 9 2.11%
Krionos Virus Trap 10 2.34%
Longevity Serum 6 1.41%
Mass Storage Pod 6 1.41%
Nanite Swarm Capsules 6 1.41%
Neural Interface 9 2.11%
Null Fuse 6 1.41%
Omicron Mine Trap 9 2.11%
Phase Cutter Chassis 4 0.94%
Planetary Time Vortex 8 1.87%
Plantary Vortex Deflector 6 1.41%
Positron Clouder 4 0.94%
Processing Core Chassis 9 2.11%
Quantum Firewall Trap 4 0.94%
Quantum Flare 4 0.94%
Refining Lab Chassis 6 1.41%
Relay Tower Chassis 5 1.17%
Repair Nanodrones 7 1.64%
Rescued Prisoners 7 1.64%
Sentry Guards 6 1.41%
Shield Amplifer 6 1.41%
Shield Restorer 9 2.11%
Shield Sentries 5 1.17%
Ship-Bot 3 0.70%
Space Elevator Chassis 7 1.64%
Spy Probe - Defenses 8 1.87%
Spy Probe - Resources 9 2.11%
Spy Probe - Weapons 6 1.41%
Spy Uplink Chassis 7 1.64%
Star Chart Purger 7 1.64%
Subspace Seeker 9 2.11%
Tachyon Cylinder 12 2.81%
Tessaract Container 7 1.64%
Time Manipulator 6 1.41%
Unstable Wormhole Emitter 11 2.58%
Void Shell 5 1.17%
Warp Gate Chassis 8 1.87%
Xcharge Cells 7 1.64%
Author:  Lone.Lycan [ Tue Aug 16, 2011 2:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Artifacts - Keeping a Tally to determine pull ratio
that's weird... you didn't get a single ion storm charge?

summary of your pulls, sample size = 427
Qty, # of unique item types per qty
00, 1
01, 1
02, 0
03, 1
04, 4
05, 4
06, 16
07, 9
08, 8
09, 8
10, 1
11, 3
12, 3
13, 1
Author:  Threadbare [ Tue Aug 16, 2011 5:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Artifacts - Keeping a Tally to determine pull ratio
No, not a single one. That IS weird. I will repost when I get closer to 1000 pulls.
Author:  Lone.Lycan [ Tue Aug 16, 2011 8:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Artifacts - Keeping a Tally to determine pull ratio
by the way... with 60 different marbles to choose from, it'll take tens (maybe hundreds) of thousands of pulls to confidently say that any one marble has a significantly different chance of selection than the rest....
Author:  Threadbare [ Wed Aug 17, 2011 1:32 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Artifacts - Keeping a Tally to determine pull ratio
I figured I could pull until I had 30 of each so someone could put together a normal curve. Or if that took too long, at least go for a couple thousand pulls.
Author:  Lone.Lycan [ Wed Aug 17, 2011 2:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Artifacts - Keeping a Tally to determine pull ratio
aww.. just going up to 30 ? ok....

(assuming equal pulls on all 60 items)
mean = trials * probSuccess = trials / 60
st.dev = √( trials * probSuccess * ( 1 - probSuccess ) ) = √( trials * 59 / 3600 )

when you get up to 1800 pulls, ideally you'd have an average quantity of 30 per item type, with a standard deviation of 5.43139
so 95% of the item types (57 item types) should have quantities ranging from 20 to 40

(i think that's right... if BinaryMan wants to, he can correct me on this)

it'll be interesting to see if ion storm catches up.... i know i usually pull 1 ion storm per ion repulser
Author:  blakespon [ Wed Aug 17, 2011 3:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Artifacts - Keeping a Tally to determine pull ratio
when you do your artifact pulls youll have to make sure its alwats above 20000 points s you have ethe correct odds of getting everything
Author:  boomsly [ Wed Aug 17, 2011 8:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Artifacts - Keeping a Tally to determine pull ratio
blakespon wrote:
when you do your artifact pulls youll have to make sure its alwats above 20000 points s you have ethe correct odds of getting everything


read the first line in his post
Author:  BinaryMan [ Wed Aug 17, 2011 8:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Artifacts - Keeping a Tally to determine pull ratio
Pooled results from a large # of players:

Spy Probe - Defenses 247
Grav-Whip Trap 246
Ancient Crystal Foci 242
Subspace Seeker 239
Time Manipulator 237
Alien Data Disc 233
Grid Console 231
Sentry Guards 231
Android Helmsman 230
Quantum Firewall Trap 225
Null Fuse 223
Shield Amplifier 222
Mass Storage Pod 221
Nanite Swarm Capsules 220
Shield Sentries 220
Dark Pyramid 218
Calming Amplifier 218
Neural Interface 217
Relay Tower Chassis 217
Unstable Wormhole Emitter 216
Processing Core Chassis 216
Disarming Bomb 214
Tachyon Cylinder 214
Planetary Time Vortex 214
Cloning Pods 213
Rescued Prisoners 211
Continuum Beacon 209
Quantum Flare 208
Flux Probe 208
Longevity Serum 208
Halcyon Trap 205
Android Scientist 205
Star Chart Purger 204
Omicron Mine Trap 204
Spy Uplink Chassis 203
Krionus Virus Trap 203
Spy Probe - Resources 203
Drannik Saboteur 200
EMP Sphere 200
Ion Storm Charge 200
Planet Vortex Deflector 199
Phase Cutter Chassis 199
Crimson Obelisk 197
Spy Probe - Weapons 197
Durtanium Brackets 197
Ion Repulsor Charge 196
Refining Lab Chassis 196
Shield Restorer 195
Engineered Virus 195
Void Shell 194
Alarm Sentry 193
Space Elevator Chassis 193
Repair Nanodrones 192
Tesseract Container 192
Positron Clouder 191
Containment Missile 191
XCharge Cells 188
Ship-Bot 187
Warp Gate Chassis 184
Containment Cage 181

Total Artifacts 12552
Total AP value: 20,118,500
Average AP value/drop : 1602
Number of unique drops : 60
MSP % of AP : 22.0%

Resulting hypothesis: all drops have statistically same chance of being picked, if they are within the set your AP can cover (ie, > 20k = all things are equal drop rate). Also, for every 4k/hr AP you get on average 1 of everything per day, for example prisoners.
Author:  Lone.Lycan [ Wed Aug 17, 2011 8:58 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Artifacts - Keeping a Tally to determine pull ratio
N = 12552 pulls
ideal Avg = 209.2 per item type
ideal St.Dev = 14.34

ideally, 95% of the item types (57 item types) should have quantities within 181 to 237
from the data we see 4 item types are beyond 237, one of them is 239... i'm satisfied with the results... seems to match equal distribution to all 60 items close enough...

(also nice to see 200 ion storms there.... which makes up for no ion storms in the other data set)
Author:  Threadbare [ Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Artifacts - Keeping a Tally to determine pull ratio
And, this saves me from having to write down all these. :)

Thank you BinaryMan and Lone.Lycan.
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