View unanswered posts | View active topics It is currently Sat Dec 16, 2017 1:24 am



Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 5 posts ] 
 Ship raiding, possible formula 
Author Message
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jul 02, 2011 6:52 pm
Posts: 1663
Location: where the dead ships dwell
Post Ship raiding, possible formula
Throwing this out there to see if it lines up with other PVPer's experiences and/or estimates. I came up with this after only succeeding 34% of my raids (46 out of 135 attempts) against a ship with 30% more crew than me (a rare opportunity for me, knowing the number of crew on both sides), which was quite a bit lower than my guesstimate of what is would be. Anyhow, I suspect it's a mirror of the invasion formula:

unmodified raid chance = raider's crew count / (defender's crew count * 3)

i.e. if your crew equals the defender's crew count, you have a 33% chance. In my case that lead to this, the calculation results in a 25% raid chance. Once the Protean Arsenals and Thractti buffs are multiplied in, I get a 36.5% chance, which is close enough to the 34% I achieved to feel reliable. I do suspect there's a similar cap (90%) like there is with invades, but no case studies for that.

Feedback, thoughts, your experiences?

_________________
ImageImage


Sun Apr 06, 2014 5:00 am
Profile
User avatar

Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2011 5:09 am
Posts: 2972
Post Re: Ship raiding, possible formula
interesting theory .. but can not corroborate without more info on enemy crews ...

_________________
Rank 1975 Mylarai Fixer 100% DCR since r385 GL Marauder #26
_____________Image
PvP leaderboards: 51791 raids: #1; 24401 kills: #2; hacks 37371: #3;


Sun Apr 06, 2014 6:32 am
Profile WWW
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jul 02, 2011 6:52 pm
Posts: 1663
Location: where the dead ships dwell
Post Re: Ship raiding, possible formula
senatorhung wrote:
interesting theory .. but can not corroborate without more info on enemy crews ...

Yeah, that's the tricky thing, knowing the other variable. And this all assumes that rank only affects raid payouts, not raid chances, but of course the real raid chance formula could include it in some complicated way...

_________________
ImageImage


Sun Apr 06, 2014 6:41 am
Profile

Joined: Tue Nov 23, 2010 2:41 am
Posts: 1069
Post Re: Ship raiding, possible formula
i suspect there's a curve some how in it ICB.

While I don't normally know the crew counts on ships I raid, there have been a few over the years where I did. On the ones that had a lot more I'd succeed say 1 out of 3 on average.... If your right and all things equal means a roughly 33% chance, shouldn't that had way more crew I should have had less luck.

_________________
Image


Sun Apr 06, 2014 2:48 pm
Profile
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jul 02, 2011 6:52 pm
Posts: 1663
Location: where the dead ships dwell
Post Re: Ship raiding, possible formula
Fear wrote:
i suspect there's a curve some how in it ICB.

While I don't normally know the crew counts on ships I raid, there have been a few over the years where I did. On the ones that had a lot more I'd succeed say 1 out of 3 on average.... If your right and all things equal means a roughly 33% chance, shouldn't that had way more crew I should have had less luck.


As I only have the one case, it's entirely possible my guess for the formula is too simplistic. However, if you factor in raiding buffs (keeping in mind the compounding effect they have, e.g. a 10 point gain at 24% base raiding chance, 15 point at 35%) do the numbers still seem off? That being said, anecdotes are slippery fish, but I'm not sure anyone will have the time or patience to spade out the exact formula...

_________________
ImageImage


Mon Apr 07, 2014 8:34 pm
Profile
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 5 posts ] 


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to: