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 Legion Missions Success Category Stats 
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Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2012 1:42 am
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Post Legion Missions Success Category Stats
Hello, the wiki needs your help. I have added a new section with a table at the bottom of every legion mission page titled Models of success. This basically details the type of spread needed to get various success types - fair, high, even certain. Currently it goes by amount of cumulative progress needed. Read the header above each table in the legion missions for a little more information. I am trying to put something together and wonder if anyone might share their success category stats. You can message them to me if you like or post here. If at all possible, please give screenshots to show as well. This will hopefully help to serve as a guide for spread needed and I am sure there will be different combinations of possible spread to get particular chances. Thanks.


Wed Nov 04, 2015 3:13 am
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Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
I'll be nice and give you data on one mission for free... but that is the only one you will get from me

Assault on Crimson Deep-6, High Chance = (8+ / 7+ / 15+)

the way LM's work, when you can reach a minimum requirement on each task (x, y, z) you get a fair, high or certain success chance

if we look at Assault on Crimson Deep-6, it doesnt matter if you have 25+ completions on task 3, unless you also have the 8+ on task 1, and 7+ on task 2 as well, you will only get a fair chance or less
so you need raw data from quite a lot of runs of this mission to get a good estimate of those numbers, and to confirm them
and as no one actualy knows for sure, how mutch partial work counts for, theire will always be some uncertanty on those estimates


I have been tracking success chance on LM's for 1 year+ so I could easily give a fair estimate of minumum requirement for a high chance for most of the LM, but I'm not going to
this is something each legion needs to figure out for them self, and find the most optimal wayfor them to do LM's based on how many active members they have and what tasks those members actualy can do

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Wed Nov 04, 2015 5:08 pm
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Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
DarkMar wrote:
I have been tracking success chance on LM's for 1 year+ so I could easily give a fair estimate of minumum requirement for a high chance for most of the LM, but I'm not going to
this is something each legion needs to figure out for them self, and find the most optimal wayfor them to do LM's based on how many active members they have and what tasks those members actualy can do

That is a matter of opinion, but thanks anyway. And thank you to the others that have so far given info.


Wed Nov 04, 2015 7:53 pm
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Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
The Hunt for Mawks Offworld Pursuit:
Task 1- 17 members finished
Task 2 - 13 members finished
Success - High


Thu Nov 05, 2015 8:07 am
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Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
Bubarov wrote:
The Hunt for Mawks Offworld Pursuit:
Task 1- 17 members finished
Task 2 - 13 members finished
Success - High

Nice that was actually lower than ours. good to know. Thanks for the post!


Thu Nov 05, 2015 11:33 am
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Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
The magic number for High on illegal Excavation is 8 full completions on Task 2 (the race restrictive one).

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Deigobene


Sat Nov 07, 2015 8:38 am
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Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
Deigobene wrote:
The magic number for High on illegal Excavation is 8 full completions on Task 2 (the race restrictive one).

Logged. Thank you.. Thank you again to everyone so far providing this information. It really is a great help!


Sat Nov 07, 2015 1:44 pm
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Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
Pitch Ninja wrote:
Bubarov wrote:
The Hunt for Mawks Offworld Pursuit:
Task 1- 17 members finished
Task 2 - 13 members finished
Success - High

Nice that was actually lower than ours. good to know. Thanks for the post!


A question: Do you think these are fixed numbers or scaled based on the size of the legion since legions with as few as 15 members can supposedly participate? Would a smaller legion with the same percent breakdown of successful completions per task hit high or certain as a larger legion or are these numbers perceived as minimum mandatory numbers for legions of any size? A scaling factor based on number of eligible participants might account for the difference in the numbers you pointed out in this post. I've never been in a significantly smaller legion since LMs started, so I wouldn't have any insight into how often (or not) smaller legions get to higher success chances.

Another interesting question might be how often legions fail with a High success rating. It might be good to have some idea about what the different verbal descriptions of success chance mean in terms of percents.


Sat Nov 07, 2015 5:23 pm
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Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
PurFikshun wrote:
Pitch Ninja wrote:
Bubarov wrote:
The Hunt for Mawks Offworld Pursuit:
Task 1- 17 members finished
Task 2 - 13 members finished
Success - High

Nice that was actually lower than ours. good to know. Thanks for the post!


A question: Do you think these are fixed numbers or scaled based on the size of the legion since legions with as few as 15 members can supposedly participate? Would a smaller legion with the same percent breakdown of successful completions per task hit high or certain as a larger legion or are these numbers perceived as minimum mandatory numbers for legions of any size? A scaling factor based on number of eligible participants might account for the difference in the numbers you pointed out in this post. I've never been in a significantly smaller legion since LMs started, so I wouldn't have any insight into how often (or not) smaller legions get to higher success chances.

Another interesting question might be how often legions fail with a High success rating. It might be good to have some idea about what the different verbal descriptions of success chance mean in terms of percents.

From what I was told, there actually used to be percent chances given on LM success for a short time. Seems there were complaints from people failing what they thought should have been success with that specific percentage and so they were changed to words to make it more vague.


Sat Nov 07, 2015 7:42 pm
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Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
PurFikshun wrote:
Another interesting question might be how often legions fail with a High success rating. It might be good to have some idea about what the different verbal descriptions of success chance mean in terms of percents.

I have data that shows the following:

Certain: 12 Missions, 0 Fails = 0% Fail Chance
High: 110 Missions, 17 Fails = 15% Fail Chance
Fair: 64 Missions, 17 Fails = 27% Fail Chance
Low: 34 Missions, 22 Fails = 65% Fail Chance
Very Low: 2 Missions, 2 Fails = Near 100% Fail Chance
Extremely Low: 1 Mission, 1 Fail = Near 100% Fail Chance

That said, I don't think all "Highs" are equal. I believe that High is a range of say 80-90% chance of succeeding. While we only see the text, I think the closer to certain you are, the more chance of getting medals there is; but like planets, there is no 100% in high.

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Wed Nov 11, 2015 4:02 pm
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Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
Pitch Ninja wrote:
From what I was told, there actually used to be percent chances given on LM success for a short time.

I'm pretty sure you are wrong. I don't ever remember seeing this in % form and I've not missed a mission since they started.

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Wed Nov 11, 2015 4:02 pm
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Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
ODragon wrote:
Pitch Ninja wrote:
From what I was told, there actually used to be percent chances given on LM success for a short time.

I'm pretty sure you are wrong. I don't ever remember seeing this in % form and I've not missed a mission since they started.

well, guess Sooz was mistaken then. I didn't remember it either but I was low ranked when they came out so didn't really pay close attention.


Wed Nov 11, 2015 4:28 pm
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Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
my bedst guess, based on the Data I have access to is

Certain = 100% chance
High = 80 to 99% chance
fair = 50 to 79% chance
Low = 30 to 49% chance
Very Low = 10 to 29% chance
Extremely Low = less then 10% chance

but to confirme those chances you would need a lot more data then the 250 or so LM's I have data from
And I could easily be a few % points off on some of the chances

as for fixed chance for a category or chance increasing as you do more work on the tasks, I dont think anyone have enougth data so suport one theori or the other

when I look at the missions we failed on a high chance, I think we fail those where we just reached a high chance more often then those where we were very close to getting the mission to a certain chance - but again, it could just be the RNG and I dont know what is needed for certain on all missions, so could also be wrong about how close we were to certain on some of those missions.

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Thu Nov 12, 2015 12:30 pm
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Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
The Siladon Event: Fair

10/12 Task 1 (completions: 237)
2/9 Task 2 (completions: 30)
6/8 Task 3 (completions: 120)

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Deigobene


Mon Nov 16, 2015 3:00 am
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Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
Deigobene wrote:
The Siladon Event: Fair

10/12 Task 1 (completions: 237)
2/9 Task 2 (completions: 30)
6/8 Task 3 (completions: 120)


Added. Thank you.


Mon Nov 16, 2015 5:57 am
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Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
went thru every one of the tables and added a second column for each task to distinguish between full completions and partials ... also got rid of the column sorting since it didn't add anything.

now we just need moar data ;)

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Tue Nov 17, 2015 2:06 am
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Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
no, you dont need more data, what you realy need is better and smart data...
some of the data you have loged is at bedst misleading

just becourse some one loged a success chance high result by havving x, y, z (,q) compeltions on the 3 (or 4) tasks doesnt realy give you the minimum condition needed for high

you need data from a few missions that all had a high result to narow the it down, and once you have your first estimate the realy interesting data becomes when you have a fair chance, with x, y, z and the mission changes to high when someone doessome work on one of the tasks so you get x, y, z = fair, x, y, z+1 = high
and once you have confirmed minimum completions needed on that task, you can then start to see how few completions on the other you can reduce it to and still get a high chance



as for partials vs full completions, unless you also log how mutch work have been done for each partial (or total work done), that data is more or less useless

if you take Encounter at Nabai, Task 1: Retrieve Exodrone Specimens
as far as I can tell, when it comes to success chance, how many partials/completions you have doesnt realy matter
it is your total number of Silthion Exodrones killed, that tricker the change from success chance fair to success chance high

and my bedst guess is it the same with all other tasks

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Tue Nov 17, 2015 3:18 pm
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Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
DarkMar wrote:
no, you dont need more data, what you realy need is better and smart data...
some of the data you have loged is at bedst misleading

just becourse some one loged a success chance high result by havving x, y, z (,q) compeltions on the 3 (or 4) tasks doesnt realy give you the minimum condition needed for high

you need data from a few missions that all had a high result to narow the it down, and once you have your first estimate the realy interesting data becomes when you have a fair chance, with x, y, z and the mission changes to high when someone doessome work on one of the tasks so you get x, y, z = fair, x, y, z+1 = high
and once you have confirmed minimum completions needed on that task, you can then start to see how few completions on the other you can reduce it to and still get a high chance

as for partials vs full completions, unless you also log how mutch work have been done for each partial (or total work done), that data is more or less useless

if you take Encounter at Nabai, Task 1: Retrieve Exodrone Specimens
as far as I can tell, when it comes to success chance, how many partials/completions you have doesnt realy matter
it is your total number of Silthion Exodrones killed, that tricker the change from success chance fair to success chance high

and my bedst guess is it the same with all other tasks

without knowing what someone else got for high chance (full completions plus partial), it is difficult to know when to keep watch over the changeover. hence the data collection. the more data, the easier to determine when the switchover happens, whether it is full completions, or total task completions. by separating out the full and partials, this can be more readily determined, whereas the initial tables only included the total number of task completions.

since you are only speculating yourself, based on your own fulsome experience, without being able to nail down the particulars in 2 years of trying, why not use the resources of the crowd to try to get some better starting points ? of course, another possibility is that you already know these inflection points and are just trying to prevent other legions from getting that info ... which is a perfectly valid tactic. but you've been willing to provide other info for the wiki, so i find that unlikely.

the other reason i supported Pitch's initiative was because there is very little on the wiki about individual legions in the game. i thought this would be a way to highlight some active legions as a record of their history. hence my request for moar data !

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Tue Nov 17, 2015 8:54 pm
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Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
I already have access to detailed data from 250+ LM's, with presisly how many did each task,(including partial completiomns, fails etc) the success chance, and where or not the mission was a sucess or not

usealy log it in this format.... task 1 / task 2 / task 3 / (task 4) = (quick overview of completions/partials): success chance - fail/success
and (complations / number of partials - total work done / fails) for each task to make it easy to compair data, and have been doing this for 1 year+ (proberly closer to 2 years+, time do fly)

looks like this when you line it up.....

Assault on Crimson Deep-6
(7/5-x/0) / (10/1-x/1) / (12/0-0/0) = (29/6-x/1) Success Chaince: Fair - Success
(9/1-x/0) / (7/0-0/1) / (26/1-x/0) = (42/2-x/1) Success Chance: High - Success
(8/1-x/0) / (7/0-0/0) / (15/0-0/0) = (30/1-x/0) Success Chance: High - Success
(5/5-x/0) / (7/1-x/1) / (26/1-x/0) = (38/7-x/1) Success Chance: Fair - success
(5/2-x/0) / (8/0-0/0) / (25/1-x/0) = (38/3-x/0) Success Chance: Fair - Success
...
...
...
etc etc etc.


didnt always track total work done on partials, and this is some of my old data from SSA - but after we got the new LM's, and I looked closly at my data for Encounter at Nabai, Task 1: Retrieve Exodrone Specimens, it became aprerent that total number of kills on task 1 is all that realy matters, how many completions vs partials didnt seme to have any effect - so started tracking partial work more carefuly after I did that analysis.

so belive me I dont speculate and I already have a good estimate of what is needed for a high chance for most of the LM's
and the once I dont have data from are the once we usealy dont bother even trying to get to a high chance due to imposible race/profession requirements or extreamly high EM/XTS-9 cost for a task that doesnt realy give you anything and have no follow up mission (like Cleanup at Ryelis)

all I'm saying is, if you want to log data for partial completions, do it right and dont repeat my mistake, where i didnt loged total work done on partials for the first 6 months or so
becourse you need that data for an accurate estimate of the chances. I learned that the hard way....


I dont suport Pitch's initiative, becourse this is something ALL legions interested in doing LM's should have been doing from day 1, to make sure theire members got as many relic badges as posible - and I'm not going to help those that are to lazy to do so, by sharing my data
so as I sayed in my first post, Assault on Crimson Deep-6, is the only mission I'll share any data on

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Tue Nov 17, 2015 10:40 pm
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Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
the point of my update was to indicate that i had done EXACTLY what you are advocating ... tracking both completions and partials. the fact that you didn't even bother to look at the wiki update before responding just means that you just don't want folks to share the info. that's fine.

http://galaxylegion.com/wiki/index.php/ ... in_Taladar

i posted our results from Mawks round 3 .. we were very surprised to still be at extremely low chance despite 22 overall task completions. so now we will be tweaking things going forward to see how to improve that. yes, each legion could do this themselves, but Mawks round 3 doesn't come along all that often for some legions, so for those of us in that situation, it is much better to pool the information.

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Wed Nov 18, 2015 12:50 am
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