View unanswered posts | View active topics It is currently Thu Oct 17, 2019 7:22 pm



Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 96 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next
 Legion Missions Success Category Stats 
Author Message
User avatar

Joined: Mon Sep 08, 2014 6:44 pm
Posts: 711
Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
I am still seeing wonky numbers. I haven't updated the wiki, so don't go bashing me and claiming Elios; like last time, Elios is already over. Unlike last time, this mission started well after Elios ended.

Here are some current Fair / High breakpoints for The Siladon Event:
Image

We currently have:
Task 1: 10 complete, 12/20 incomplete, 1 failure (somebody dropped legion after completing), 9 equivalent
Task 2: 6 complete, 3/10 incomplete, 6 equivalent
Task 3: 6 complete, 2/20 incomplete, 6 equivalent
Completions: 22 (-1 failure, so 21)

Nobody else is seeing inflated legion mission success chances still? Not that I'm complaining, I rather like it. But it does seem a little odd that we keep seeing it and everybody else claims that everything is completely normal.

_________________
--------------- GD: A good legion for collecting relic badges ---------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------


Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:30 pm
Profile

Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2012 1:42 am
Posts: 1091
Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
It definitely isn't still giving the overall bonus. Our recent run with carjean is proof.


Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:50 pm
Profile
User avatar

Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2011 5:09 am
Posts: 3304
Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
Texas Toast wrote:
I am still seeing wonky numbers. I haven't updated the wiki, so don't go bashing me and claiming Elios; like last time, Elios is already over. Unlike last time, this mission started well after Elios ended.

Here are some current Fair / High breakpoints for The Siladon Event:
Image

We currently have:
Task 1: 10 complete, 12/20 incomplete, 1 failure (somebody dropped legion after completing), 9 equivalent
Task 2: 6 complete, 3/10 incomplete, 6 equivalent
Task 3: 6 complete, 2/20 incomplete, 6 equivalent
Completions: 22 (-1 failure, so 21)

Nobody else is seeing inflated legion mission success chances still? Not that I'm complaining, I rather like it. But it does seem a little odd that we keep seeing it and everybody else claims that everything is completely normal.


not enough info .. you don't indicate whether your current stats give you fair or high.

the current high success theory is 5 complete task 2 and 8 complete task 3.

out of the 3 LMs (Carjean, Siladon, Assault) we have had at Zentzu since the end of Elios, we have not seen any inflated LM success chances.

_________________
Rank 2734 Mylarai Explorer 100% DCR r385-r2200 GL Marauder #26
_____________Image
PvP leaderboards: 61353 raids: #1; 61683 hacks: #1; 32649 kills: #2;


Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:31 pm
Profile WWW

Joined: Tue Oct 16, 2012 9:26 pm
Posts: 1060
Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
Texas Toast wrote:
I am still seeing wonky numbers. I haven't updated the wiki, so don't go bashing me and claiming Elios; like last time, Elios is already over. Unlike last time, this mission started well after Elios ended.

Here are some current Fair / High breakpoints for The Siladon Event:
Image

We currently have:
Task 1: 10 complete, 12/20 incomplete, 1 failure (somebody dropped legion after completing), 9 equivalent
Task 2: 6 complete, 3/10 incomplete, 6 equivalent
Task 3: 6 complete, 2/20 incomplete, 6 equivalent
Completions: 22 (-1 failure, so 21)

Nobody else is seeing inflated legion mission success chances still? Not that I'm complaining, I rather like it. But it does seem a little odd that we keep seeing it and everybody else claims that everything is completely normal.

Something is very wrong with the TWH stats that are there, because we have never only got to Fair on Siladon.
8 Highs, 3 Certains, so I have no idea whatsoever why it says what it does, but it is wrong.


Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:31 pm
Profile

Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2012 1:42 am
Posts: 1091
Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
It could have been recorded along the way while the mission was at fair before it crossed to high, probably just to record the perameters. Not that you ended on high, just that at some point in the duration you were at fair.


Sat Aug 11, 2018 12:50 am
Profile
User avatar

Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2011 5:09 am
Posts: 3304
Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
Deigobene wrote:
Texas Toast wrote:
I am still seeing wonky numbers. I haven't updated the wiki, so don't go bashing me and claiming Elios; like last time, Elios is already over. Unlike last time, this mission started well after Elios ended.

Here are some current Fair / High breakpoints for The Siladon Event:
Image

We currently have:
Task 1: 10 complete, 12/20 incomplete, 1 failure (somebody dropped legion after completing), 9 equivalent
Task 2: 6 complete, 3/10 incomplete, 6 equivalent
Task 3: 6 complete, 2/20 incomplete, 6 equivalent
Completions: 22 (-1 failure, so 21)

Nobody else is seeing inflated legion mission success chances still? Not that I'm complaining, I rather like it. But it does seem a little odd that we keep seeing it and everybody else claims that everything is completely normal.

Something is very wrong with the TWH stats that are there, because we have never only got to Fair on Siladon.
8 Highs, 3 Certains, so I have no idea whatsoever why it says what it does, but it is wrong.


viewtopic.php?f=4&t=43545&start=13
Deigobene wrote:
The Siladon Event: Fair

10/12 Task 1 (completions: 237)
2/9 Task 2 (completions: 30)
6/8 Task 3 (completions: 120)


so, probably not the exact data point in the image .. but soon thereafter. didn't search thru the rest of the forum to nail it down specifically ... but it was not pulled out of the blue.

_________________
Rank 2734 Mylarai Explorer 100% DCR r385-r2200 GL Marauder #26
_____________Image
PvP leaderboards: 61353 raids: #1; 61683 hacks: #1; 32649 kills: #2;


Sat Aug 11, 2018 1:15 am
Profile WWW

Joined: Tue Oct 16, 2012 9:26 pm
Posts: 1060
Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
Thanks guys, without the headers for reference I was reading the wrong columns.
Sorry about that.


Sat Aug 11, 2018 1:56 am
Profile
User avatar

Joined: Mon Sep 08, 2014 6:44 pm
Posts: 711
Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
senatorhung wrote:
not enough info .. you don't indicate whether your current stats give you fair or high.


Sorry - we are at high chances with the numbers above. Which should only be fair chances based on what's in the wiki.

Pitch Ninja wrote:
It definitely isn't still giving the overall bonus. Our recent run with carjean is proof.


Definitely not. Going back a couple missions when you guys piled on me for asking about if anybody else was seeing inflated chances, we saw our success chances go down once Elios was actually turned off, it just doesn't seem to have gone down to the old normal. This mission being a case in point per Senator's comment:

senatorhung wrote:
the current high success theory is 5 complete task 2 and 8 complete task 3.


We are currently at 6 each on tasks 2 and 3 (so enough for task 2, but not enough for task 3), with 9 completions on task 1 assuming that the failure subtracts one. TWH had 10/20/6 without even considering partial sand was only at Fair in the wiki, so higher than all of our stats. It seems odd that we're the only ones inflated.

Oh well, hopefully Mawks comes around again before this goes away; I only need one more upgrade for my morpho suit...

_________________
--------------- GD: A good legion for collecting relic badges ---------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------


Sat Aug 11, 2018 3:21 am
Profile
User avatar

Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2011 5:09 am
Posts: 3304
Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
Texas Toast wrote:
Going back a couple missions when you guys piled on me for asking about if anybody else was seeing inflated chances, we saw our success chances go down once Elios was actually turned off, it just doesn't seem to have gone down to the old normal.


nobody jumped on you for asking about any inflated LM success chance. we jumped on you for considering adding a datapoint to the wiki that you yourself suspected might be affected by an elios hangover.

_________________
Rank 2734 Mylarai Explorer 100% DCR r385-r2200 GL Marauder #26
_____________Image
PvP leaderboards: 61353 raids: #1; 61683 hacks: #1; 32649 kills: #2;


Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:18 am
Profile WWW

Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2016 11:02 am
Posts: 29
Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
The Hunt for Mawks (Offworld Pursuit)

Fair chance (Imminent Darkness, 11th Aug)

T1 2F + 5P
T2 7F + 33P

This seems a lot lower than the existing stats here: http://galaxylegion.com/wiki/index.php/ ... of_Success


Sat Aug 11, 2018 8:24 pm
Profile
User avatar

Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2011 5:09 am
Posts: 3304
Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
Cut wrote:
The Hunt for Mawks (Offworld Pursuit)

Fair chance (Imminent Darkness, 11th Aug)

T1 2F + 5P
T2 7F + 33P

This seems a lot lower than the existing stats here: http://galaxylegion.com/wiki/index.php/ ... of_Success


i pulled up some of the historical info for the low / fair line from the page's history: http://galaxylegion.com/wiki/index.php? ... ldid=47013

Code:
Low    7    28    16    48    N/A    N/A    23    27    Chesterton Royal Asylum    09aug2016
Low    7    27     9     0    N/A    N/A    16    18    Zentzu                     09mar2017


Dan might have adjusted the LM success chances permanently for some of the LMs (2d batch ones maybe ??) but we will need more datapoints before we consider throwing out everything we've gotten so far.

_________________
Rank 2734 Mylarai Explorer 100% DCR r385-r2200 GL Marauder #26
_____________Image
PvP leaderboards: 61353 raids: #1; 61683 hacks: #1; 32649 kills: #2;


Last edited by senatorhung on Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:39 am, edited 1 time in total.



Sat Aug 11, 2018 8:46 pm
Profile WWW

Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2012 1:42 am
Posts: 1091
Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
senatorhung wrote:
Dan might have adjusted the LM success chances permanently for some of the LMs.


This would definitely make sense...


Sat Aug 11, 2018 8:54 pm
Profile
User avatar

Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2016 2:52 pm
Posts: 288
Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
senatorhung wrote:
Code:
Low    7    28    16    48    N/A    N/A    23    27    Chesterton Royal Asylum    09aug2016
Low    7    27     9     0    N/A    N/A    16    18    Zentzu                     09mar2017


Dan might have adjusted the LM success chances permanently for some of the LMs (2d batch ones maybe ??) but we will need more datapoints before we consider throwing out everything we've gotten so far.


Not to sound stupid... But could you explain how you came to that conclusion? It's just, the way I see it, task 1's completions are pretty much the same, with a bit of variance in task 2's completions... But what if that task carries nowhere near as much weight as task 1? Or what if the recording with the higher completions was just barely on the upper bound of the "Low" success chance?


Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:29 am
Profile
User avatar

Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2011 5:09 am
Posts: 3304
Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
Guide wrote:
senatorhung wrote:
Code:
Low    7    28    16    48    N/A    N/A    23    27    Chesterton Royal Asylum    09aug2016
Low    7    27     9     0    N/A    N/A    16    18    Zentzu                     09mar2017


Dan might have adjusted the LM success chances permanently for some of the LMs (2d batch ones maybe ??) but we will need more datapoints before we consider throwing out everything we've gotten so far.


Not to sound stupid... But could you explain how you came to that conclusion? It's just, the way I see it, task 1's completions are pretty much the same, with a bit of variance in task 2's completions... But what if that task carries nowhere near as much weight as task 1? Or what if the recording with the higher completions was just barely on the upper bound of the "Low" success chance?


the discrepancy is Cut's datapoint which indicates fair success chance with fewer completions than the 2 lows that you quoted. TT and Cut both posted about Mawks ... while Pitch and i both have data points from series 1 LMs post-Elios that show no discrepancies. if Dan was mucking with LM success rates, he might have done more than Mawks, hence my series 2 suggested possibility to keep an eye out for.

_________________
Rank 2734 Mylarai Explorer 100% DCR r385-r2200 GL Marauder #26
_____________Image
PvP leaderboards: 61353 raids: #1; 61683 hacks: #1; 32649 kills: #2;


Sun Aug 12, 2018 3:48 am
Profile WWW
User avatar

Joined: Mon Sep 08, 2014 6:44 pm
Posts: 711
Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
senatorhung wrote:
nobody jumped on you for asking about any inflated LM success chance. we jumped on you for considering adding a datapoint to the wiki that you yourself suspected might be affected by an elios hangover.


Yes, but all 3 of you left unproductive negative notes with objections I specifically addressed and completely ignored my actual question which would have been a bit more productive towards finding new trends.

On an unrelated note, we just got a new minimum completion level for Assault on Crimson Deep-6 to get High Success chances. It doesn't invalidate any of the existing Fair results or the current "High theory", but since it is a new low it's probably worth keeping an eye on the tier 1 legion missions too to see if they were also (potentially) tweaked.

_________________
--------------- GD: A good legion for collecting relic badges ---------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------


Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:23 pm
Profile
User avatar

Joined: Mon Sep 08, 2014 6:44 pm
Posts: 711
Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
Another new minimum required for Carthyne Symposium to reach Fair success chances. Doesn't invalidate what's there given the mix of completions that were made, but again, worth noting in case it has become easier. Will keep an eye to see if we get it to high chances and where we're at when we do.

_________________
--------------- GD: A good legion for collecting relic badges ---------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------


Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:57 pm
Profile
User avatar

Joined: Mon Sep 08, 2014 6:44 pm
Posts: 711
Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
So...nobody else is seeing inflated success chances?

We are now on Illegal excavation, with 11+4/3 on task 1, 2 on task 2, and 9+11/20 on task 3. So 22 total completions, 23 equivalent completions, and high success chances.

At a quick glance there is a 17 / 3 / 15 for Fair chances which is more on all 3 tasks than our 12 / 2 / 9.

_________________
--------------- GD: A good legion for collecting relic badges ---------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------


Sun Aug 19, 2018 8:58 pm
Profile
User avatar

Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2016 2:52 pm
Posts: 288
Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
Texas Toast wrote:
At a quick glance there is a 17 / 3 / 15 for Fair chances which is more on all 3 tasks than our 12 / 2 / 9.

That's assuming that task completion/participation ratio isn't a factor in determining success chance. I'm not sure what we know about that, but it's something that sprung to mind and something I thought might be worth mentioning.


Sun Aug 19, 2018 9:19 pm
Profile
User avatar

Joined: Mon Sep 08, 2014 6:44 pm
Posts: 711
Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
That could be, I haven't seen that theory before. Still...until this year's Elios, I've only once seen data that seemed to contradict the empirical data that had been collected and couldn't be sure I hadn't miscounted (and the numbers changed before I had a chance to get back to it.) Since then, almost every mission we seem to be higher than one would expect (but not as high as during Elios itself.)

_________________
--------------- GD: A good legion for collecting relic badges ---------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------


Mon Aug 20, 2018 1:03 am
Profile

Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2016 11:02 am
Posts: 29
Post Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats
Galakis, City of Deals
High Chance (14th Sept 2018)
T1 12F + 15P
T2 7F + 18P
T3 6F + 0P


Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:36 am
Profile
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 96 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
Jump to: