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 fix legion missions seriously 
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Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 3:02 pm
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Darmos is much too hard to succeed on...It was "fixed" to make it harder but that cheats those of us that were never on a legion success. :evil:

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Wed Sep 10, 2014 6:37 am
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Okay, so the other day a member asked me about the last time we had Ardyne, but it got me wondering, 'What are the odds of getting a specific Legion Mission so infrequently?', and the results of that math are quite surprising.

Assuming equal weight on all Legion Missions, then the odds of getting any specific Legion Mission are 1 in 16 in a Legion that has 45+ members of Average Rank 450+ and the odds of not getting that specific Legion Mission are thus 15 in 16, which leads us to (15/16)^x = 1/16, where x is the theoretical statistical number of Legion Missions between encounters with any specific Legion Mission.

Solving for x = ln(0.0625) / ln(0.9375) = -2.7725887222 / -0.064538521138 = 42.96021466422341

In other words, you're almost equally as likely to NOT get a Legion Mission nearly forty-three times-in-a-row as you are to get it once, assuming equal weight and you are in any of the Top 40 legions or so (those with 45+ members of Average Rank 450+).

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Sat Oct 11, 2014 2:21 am
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Joined: Sun Feb 12, 2012 2:27 pm
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CapitainePaul wrote:
Darmos is much too hard to succeed on...It was "fixed" to make it harder but that cheats those of us that were never on a legion success. :evil:


wrong
before it was fixed it was more or less imposibile to get it to even fair, without putting completions on task 3

task 1 with 13 completions + 7 partials
task 2 with 11 completions + 16 partials
task 3 with 0 completions + 0 partials
would only give you a low chance

vs

task 1 with 15 completions + 2 partials
task 2 with 10 completions + 13 partials
task 3 with 7 completions + 2 partials
that used to give you a high chance

so basickly, before it was fixed you needed to get lucky on a low chance, so you would be able to put members on task 3 and get the high chance

now you need more then 15/10 completions on task 1 and 2 to get a high chance, but you can get a high chance without putting any completions on task 3

so NO, you didnt get cheated if you hadent have a succes on it before it was fixed
look up the facts, before you make a complaint like that

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Sun Oct 12, 2014 7:15 am
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Joined: Wed Sep 19, 2012 9:44 pm
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Annabell wrote:
Okay, so the other day a member asked me about the last time we had Ardyne, but it got me wondering, 'What are the odds of getting a specific Legion Mission so infrequently?', and the results of that math are quite surprising.

Assuming equal weight on all Legion Missions, then the odds of getting any specific Legion Mission are 1 in 16 in a Legion that has 45+ members of Average Rank 450+ and the odds of not getting that specific Legion Mission are thus 15 in 16, which leads us to (15/16)^x = 1/16, where x is the theoretical statistical number of Legion Missions between encounters with any specific Legion Mission.

Solving for x = ln(0.0625) / ln(0.9375) = -2.7725887222 / -0.064538521138 = 42.96021466422341

In other words, you're almost equally as likely to NOT get a Legion Mission nearly forty-three times-in-a-row as you are to get it once, assuming equal weight and you are in any of the Top 40 legions or so (those with 45+ members of Average Rank 450+).


Your logic is that you get it on a specific time, eg I say 'next legion mission will be ardyne' then the odds of the next legion mission being ardyne are that. However the odds of missing getting a legion mission at least once in 43 times in a row are not that. they would be 1, the 100% chance -(15/16) aka not getting that legion mission ^ 43, on 43 occasions in a row = 0.938

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Sun Oct 12, 2014 7:24 pm
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