15 full completions on Task 2 is what I'd suggest you aim for if Certain is the goal.
Anything less than 150 completions on Task 2 has never gotten TWH above High. 3 times we hit 150, Certain each time.

Galaxy Battleships on February 5, 2018 The Hunt for Mawks Showdown in Taladar just moved into the HIGH chance category with the following:

15 completions on Task 1 and 0 Partial
15 completions on Task 2 and 0 Partial

we were also at a Low chance last night on February 4, 2018 with:
14 completions on Task 1 and 0 Partial
15 completions on Task 2 and 0 Partial
so only 1 more doing Task 1 jumped us up from Low to High, lol.

On June 7, 2018 Galaxy Battleships reached High chance of success on The Hunt for Mawks - Offworld Pursuit.

17 completions on Task 1 with 30 partial
13 completions on Task 2 with 0 partial

so the theory that it takes 20 completion equivalents on Task 1 to make it to High holds up.

NEW DATA LM: The Hunt for Mawks, Legion: Imminent Darkness, Success chance: High, Date: July08 2018 Task1: 11 full, 0 partial, Task 2: 11 full, 126 partial

Except that this data is only good during Elios since they are boosting LM chance of passing.

yep, i'm not updating the wiki with any info posted for LM success chances this month.

Okay - before I update the wiki, this flies in the face of quite a bit of the established data points and I don't want to be accused of being wrong or faking data again when I am directly observing something that is different. Note that we did have High chances until Elios ended and it went back to Fair, and now have High chances again...so not sure if there was a change, or if there is a bug that's still hanging out from Elios, or if there are just multiple incorrect data points in the wiki...







I am counting 10 full and 20/10 partial for a total of 12 equivalent completions on task 1.
I am counting 17 full and 13/20 partial for a total of 17 equivalent completions on task 2.

A legionmate pointed out he saw 10 (12) / 16 earlier this morning but haven't verified yet if he miscounted or somebody else did some work in the half hour between when he posted and when I checked. I suspect the former. But, it's a bit of a moot point as the empirical evidence to date has multiple Fair occurrences at 12 + 21 and higher equivalencies.

And for those that want a cut & paste instead of a screenshot, here's that same data a few minutes later (didn't bother checking to see if anything new was found while typing):

Arrest Mawks' Accomplices
Lady Mawks' goons escaped at the same time she left. They will likely have information that will lead to her capture.
Requires: Use an Arrest Drone on a Cobalt Speeder
Rewards: 1(on completion)
Hide Progress
Kodiak
10 / 10
Deadpool
10 / 10
Gromph
10 / 10
Tunner
10 / 10
Neumiller
10 / 10
Quxzertic
7 / 10
Grmreaper17
1 / 10
Wolven
10 / 10
Fabtheslayer
6 / 10
ROU Luciferrous
10 / 10
Gnxxx
10 / 10
Lilliputian
10 / 10
Mizalin
3 / 10
Red Wyvern
10 / 10
LandPhil
3 / 10
TurtleFreak
0 / 10

Perform Morphogenic Trace
Allies of Trovar Zane will lead the effort in tracing the origin of the Morphogenic Sac.
Requires: 750 2012000
Rewards: 100 1(on completion)
Hide Progress
TexasToast
20 / 20
Rip111
20 / 20
Odinsway
20 / 20
BOBBY1980
20 / 20
Octane
20 / 20
Pacman
20 / 20
Zarcon
20 / 20
Chetta
20 / 20
Trogdor28
20 / 20
Qwipp
20 / 20
Vasco
20 / 20
Stixz
13 / 20
Golden98
20 / 20
CaptainKetchup
20 / 20
BritishEmpire
20 / 20
Cat666
20 / 20
Peticks
20 / 20
Cobolt
20 / 20

So I guess one question I have: is anybody else seeing inflated chances with missions that started during Elios still? Or any other explanations that folks can think up?

Though I suppose it could be the highest 13 equivalent on task 1 data point only has 13 on task 2 as well...so it could be a 12.5+ on task 1 minimum for high chances plus somewhere above 13 on task 2 in order to get it...

Given we know the chances were increased for Elios and the chance you got seems considerably outside expectations based on past observations, I would be willing to bet it is Elios and that if you got the same numbers again next time the result would be Fair.

Quite a few of the Fairs TWH has had since 2014 have had higher numbers for both Task 1 and Task 2, so I don't believe it is to anything to do with a weird combo. Eg: 17/21 and 25/25 (181/500) resulted in Fair last time we completed on April 26, 2018.
Not impossible that it has been tweaked I guess, but likeliest explanation for me is Elios.

i will be deleting any LM success info from the wiki for the date range of the elios seasonal (any LM started between 06jul2018 and 30jul2018) since it is unreliable to compare with existing data.

EDIT: added the specific date range for the 2018 elios seasonal

Wow of all people, I thought fellow wiki editors would know better.

Well, I addressed all 3 of your responses in my original post...

This is post-Elios. We had High chances during Elios w/less completions, and it went down to Fair. We are now back to High chances today.

Hence, why I posted here instead of in the wiki. Specifically, which I already asked and none have addressed and instead opting to state that Elios stats don't matter:



In case there was some confusion, I am asking if any current legion missions also seem inflated now, not whether they were obviously inflated during Elios. As I mentioned above, we saw our success chances return to what would have been normal given the numbers that we have above as soon as Elios was actually shut off around lunch time on Monday.

Basically, I'm trying to figure out which of these conditions is true, not to report knowingly false data for something that doesn't apply which yes, as a wiki editor, I "should know" (and do, if you had actually read my query above):

1. Is there a bug with Elios still affecting legion mission success chances, even though it's been observed to have been turned off? (even if not to the same degree?) Does it only affect missions that were active at the time that the seasonal was up, or will this continue going forward until fixed (or just get ignored and hooray, legion missions are easier?)
2. Are there multiple incorrect data points in the wiki?
3. Was there just insufficient data on this particular mission and the breakpoint for High chances is not at 20 completions of Task 1 as was previously assumed?
4. Was the success chances for this particular mission changed?

For point #3, I went through and put the actual equivalent completions in to compare with existing data, and it seems less likely:


Point #2 also seems unlikely.

Point #1 was what I was originally asking about to ascertain, but nobody has addressed my actual question instead just telling me I should know better and pointing out that Elios numbers are off. But we aren't in Elios, and these are this morning's numbers, so I want to figure out if that is what is going on across the board or on missions that started then that have some holdover or some other bug.

Point #4 is a possibility but I don't see any way to test for that other than to wait and see what other legions see on this mission when they come up later.

I think that a recent interaction from another thread sums up the comments between mine quite well even from another context:

2. Are there multiple incorrect data points in the wiki?
No, as you suggest. The data points currently there conform to TWH's records of 20 completions, going back to early 2015.
3. Was there just insufficient data on this particular mission and the breakpoint for High chances is not at 20 completions of Task 1 as was previously assumed?
No, as I mentioned earlier in the thread, TWH has multiple occasions with more completions on both Task 1 and Task 2 that have not resulted in High.

Assuming the LM started in Elios, the most likely reason is Elios. Nothing else fits.
Who knows why it reportedly went up and down.
May have switched off at the end of Elios and then clicked back on, for who knows what reason, via who knows what mechanism.
Not something we can really know with any certainty at all to be honest, unless you ask support and they tell you.

Yep. But I was just listing out some of the reasons I could think of.

And I'm hoping to hear if others are (or aren't) seeing the same sorts of things w/whatever legion missions they are on right now.

Oh absolutely, have only been trying to help narrow down possibilities for you.

Present mission for us began after Elios had finished and has followed previous observations in terms of completions and chance.

you posted 01aug2018. mawks is a 4.day LM. hence the results are NOT post-Elios since the LM started before the end of the elios event on 30jul2018. we have no idea how Dan jigged the LM success changes for Elios. hence, the datapoint is unreliable and should not be used for comparisons.

to be specific: any LM success data for LMs started / completed between 06jul2018 and 30jul2018 are unreliable comparisons and should not be added to the wiki.

as for going forward, yeah, if anyone notices anything wonky, that is worth mentioning. however, your Mawks datapoint does not qualify since it is impacted by Elios.

Does it really count from when the LM started though? Are you sure it's not just a global modifier that's removed once the event ends?

none of us knows how Dan tweaked the LM success formulas and i'm not going to speculate. but it is obvious from TT's results and commentary that the success chance of the mawks LM *did* fluctuate at the end of the Elios seasonal .. but we have no idea if the final success chance was bugged or not bugged somehow since it started before the end of the seasonal and Dan's formula might have still included the Elios impact. remember the notice at the end of each LM: "still processing the results" ? hence my conclusion that TT's mawks datapoint is unreliable and should not be compared with previous data.

for LMs started AFTER 30jul2018 around mid.day .. if those results are wonky, then it is worth sounding an alarm.

i have zero issue with TT bringing this issue up. it definitely raises interesting possibilities about figuring out Dan's LM formula. but even the fact that he felt the need to ask whether the data might be bugged proves that the datapoint does not belong in the wiki. since he started his OP with:


i don't think that my response that i would delete any points in the range 06jul2018 to 30jul2018 inclusive is unreasonable.

Definitely not. When in doubt, just discard the data.

Added new success perameter to wiki: Certain on Illegal Excavation.