Atlas wrote:
Let say in theory that you have 50 % chance at succesfuly raiding me and you have the raider proffesion you will have 30% more chance to Succes in your raid.
Maybe I didn't make it clear enough because it seems that you have understand my question backward. Instead of directly resolving it, your example is leading the discussion back to the original puzzle with an extra layer of uncertainty.
The way to figure out the recipe of that "theoretical 50%" is what I am trying to do, not assuming that I have 50% successful rate at the first place then see if it is more likely that I will success as a comparison based on the assumption. What I need is probably more fact and/or data.
The extra layer of uncertainty is that profession bonus you mentioned. What does 30% more chance of success means? Is that an addition bonus (adding the successful rate up to 80% chance) or is that an multiplier (increase the successful rate from 50% to 65%)? If I can figure out the recipe of the successful rate, I will be able to testify the relationship of this profession bonus. If I don't have the recipe as a base, I am going nowhere.
Anyway, thanks for trying.