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 A study on NPC Battle percentages for rank 501-510 
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Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 2:16 pm
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Just a fun thing. I looked at 250 battles so far, and this is what I pulled:


Crimson Flamehawk Standard Common 44
Rogue Data Analyzer Standard Common 33
Dark Runner Standard Common 62
Sha'din Charger Standard Common 46
Rogue Tech Collector Standard Common 28
Silthon Queen Elite Extremely Rare 2
Lazuli Fabrication Plant Elite Rare 4
Xavox, Strill Punisher Elite Rare 1
T.O. Troop Carrier Standard Rare 1
Dark Trafficker Standard Uncommon 4
RSL Siege Cannon Standard Uncommon 2
Blade Harvester Standard Uncommon 1
Sha'din Penetrator Standard Uncommon 6
Crimson Tyrant Standard Uncommon 5
Stryll Trapper Standard Uncommon 6
Lazuli Harrower Standard Uncommon 2
Shadin Shockfighter Standard Uncommon 1
Lazuli Refinery Center Elite Rare 1
Mylari Extractor Standard Uncommon 1


85.2% are common battles, with the most common ship being the Dark Runner.
11.2% are uncommon battles, with the most common being Stryll Trappers and Sha'din Penetrators.
3.6% are rare or rarer.

If we assume that the game uses whole numbers, then I suspect that any given pull has an 85% chance of being common, 11% chance of being uncommon, and 4% chance of being rare. Although, I did get a lot of rares.

I will keep track. I started at level 502, and will add in battles through level 510.

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Tue Jul 12, 2011 4:56 am
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See my journal thread: viewtopic.php?f=7&t=7418

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Tue Jul 12, 2011 5:09 am
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There are Extremely Rares also, but I guess it'll take more to see that well.

The idea I posted in the other thread:

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I don't think it's just a flat out percentage for each NPC, because that wouldn't work with how dynamic the available NPCs are. If you already have a bunch of NPCs it must add up to a 100% chance, but then what happens if you add another? I think each one is assigned a value which is used in this manner: imagine an array with a bunch of slots for the NPCs, and the value of the NPC tells you how many slots it fills in that array. For example, you have the Charger, Flamehawk, and Asteroids, and each has a value of 3. Thus, when you run into a Common there's a 1 in 3 chance it will be the Asteroid. Now, you add in a Rogue Data Analyzer, which has a value of 1. Now the Asteroid has a 30% chance of being found. Basically, the game might choose Common, Uncommon, Rare, or Extremely Rare, and then randomly picks a slot. Because each NPC has a different amount of slots it they have a different chance of being found. However, this also doesn't translate into a flat percentage. Of course, with this system I don't think it would necessarily need to choose the rarity first, but it could.


Tue Jul 12, 2011 5:13 am
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FerrusManus wrote:
There are Extremely Rares also, but I guess it'll take more to see that well.

The idea I posted in the other thread:

Quote:
I don't think it's just a flat out percentage for each NPC, because that wouldn't work with how dynamic the available NPCs are. If you already have a bunch of NPCs it must add up to a 100% chance, but then what happens if you add another? I think each one is assigned a value which is used in this manner: imagine an array with a bunch of slots for the NPCs, and the value of the NPC tells you how many slots it fills in that array. For example, you have the Charger, Flamehawk, and Asteroids, and each has a value of 3. Thus, when you run into a Common there's a 1 in 3 chance it will be the Asteroid. Now, you add in a Rogue Data Analyzer, which has a value of 1. Now the Asteroid has a 30% chance of being found. Basically, the game might choose Common, Uncommon, Rare, or Extremely Rare, and then randomly picks a slot. Because each NPC has a different amount of slots it they have a different chance of being found. However, this also doesn't translate into a flat percentage. Of course, with this system I don't think it would necessarily need to choose the rarity first, but it could.


Having done a small amount of coding myself, this is how I would do it (in plain words for those who do not understand coding)
Eliminate all NPCs out of rank range.
Set it to the rarest eligible NPC.
Then go through the NPCs from rarest to commonest changing it.
The commonest would be chosen last, and thus have no chance of being over-written.
The chance of it changing would scale down so that ships could appear with equal frequency. (within common, it would start at 10-20%, and scale down. I can't think what the chances would actually be without knowing what the chance of finding each NPC is.)

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Tue Jul 12, 2011 4:44 pm
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Updated. 504 ships tallied:

Crimson Flamehawk Standard Common 103
Rogue Data Analyzer Standard Common 64
Dark Runner Standard Common 107
Sha'din Charger Standard Common 90
Rogue Tech Collector Standard Common 67
Silthon Queen Elite Extremely Rare 2
Sha'din Hypergrid Boss Extremely Rare 1
Drannik Ballistae Standard Extremely Rare 2
Korteth, Crimson Carrier Elite Extremely Rare 1
XRP - Prototype Elite Extremely Rare 1
Lazuli Fabrication Plant Elite Rare 6
Xavox, Strill Punisher Elite Rare 1
T.O. Troop Carrier Standard Rare 1
Lazuli Refinery Center Elite Rare 2
Rogue Labpod Standard Rare 1
Dark Arms Carrier Standard Rare 1
Reynard, Lazuli Titan Elite Rare 1
Dark Trafficker Standard Uncommon 5
RSL Siege Cannon Standard Uncommon 2
Blade Harvester Standard Uncommon 1
Sha'din Penetrator Standard Uncommon 7
Crimson Tyrant Standard Uncommon 12
Stryll Trapper Standard Uncommon 15
Lazuli Harrower Standard Uncommon 4
Shadin Shockfighter Standard Uncommon 4
Mylari Extractor Standard Uncommon 2
Stryll Desolator Standard Uncommon 1

The chance of a common pull still hovers in the 85-86% range.
The chance of an uncommon pull still hovers in the 10-11% range.
The chance of a Rare pull hovers in the 2-3% range
The chance of an Extremely Rare pull hovers in the 1-2% range.

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Thu Jul 14, 2011 4:12 am
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My main question is : if data analyzer and chron shifter are left on, do they reduce the rate of rares like TO Carrier (about 1 in 300-330 npc with all missions completed and no fixed rank stuff > rank 600) ?

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Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:58 pm
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Well, I finished Cron Shifter, so I couldn't tell you that... the Data Analyzer though is a common - and if I am corect and the commonality is chosen first (which seems to be the case based on how solid the percentages are) I can't see how a common would affect a rare?

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Fri Jul 15, 2011 3:03 am
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Nice ThreadB.
Good info

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Fri Jul 15, 2011 3:23 am
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998 NPCs handled now. And I've decided to prolong this past rank 510. Why not, when there aren't any major changes in the NPC listing until level 600?

The percentages really haven't changed, but here's the data so far:


Crimson Flamehawk Standard Common 190
Dark Runner Standard Common 197
Rogue Data Analyzer Standard Common 138
Rogue Tech Collector Standard Common 130
Sha'din Charger Standard Common 194
Drannik Ballistae Standard Extremely Rare 2
Korteth, Crimson Carrier Elite Extremely Rare 2
Sha'din Hypergrid Boss Extremely Rare 1
Silthon Queen Elite Extremely Rare 3
Telarys Carrier Elite Extremely Rare 1
XRP - Prototype Elite Extremely Rare 1
Dark Arms Carrier Standard Rare 2
Lazuli Fabrication Plant Elite Rare 7
Lazuli Refinery Center Elite Rare 8
Reynard, Lazuli Titan Elite Rare 3
Rogue Labpod Standard Rare 3
T.O. Troop Carrier Standard Rare 3
Xavox, Strill Punisher Elite Rare 1
Blade Harvester Standard Uncommon 3
Crimson Tyrant Standard Uncommon 17
Dark Trafficker Standard Uncommon 16
Lazuli Harrower Standard Uncommon 7
Mylari Extractor Standard Uncommon 5
RSL Siege Cannon Standard Uncommon 9
Sabre Gunship Standard Uncommon 1
Sha'din Penetrator Standard Uncommon 16
Shadin Shockfighter Standard Uncommon 9
Stryll Desolator Standard Uncommon 3
Stryll Trapper Standard Uncommon 26

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Sun Jul 17, 2011 4:48 am
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aww, 998? you couldn't've given us 2 more npc's?

Standard: 971
Elite: 27
(maybe a 97%/3% split?)

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Sun Jul 17, 2011 5:21 am
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Here we are. Again, I've decided to go through level 600 on this, since you don't lose or gain any NPCs from 500 to 600 afaik. 1336 NPCs listed.

I believe the actual percentages are:

Common: 86%
Uncommon: 11%
Rare: 2%
Extremely Rare: 1%

With then internal percentages for each type of NPC. So, first roll is for what commonality of ship you will get (common, uncommon, rare, extremely rare) and the second roll is for what ship, within that commonality, will appear. This is my best guess based on the data.

There are two percentages now listed for each NPC - the first is the percentage of ships of that commonality, and the second is the percentage of the total NPCs.

Crimson Flamehawk Standard Common 255 22.29% 19.09%
Dark Runner Standard Common 251 21.94% 18.79%
Rogue Data Analyzer Standard Common 185 16.17% 13.85%
Rogue Tech Collector Standard Common 182 15.91% 13.62%
Sha'din Charger Standard Common 271 23.69% 20.28%
Dark Command Nexus Boss Extremely Rare 1 9.09% 0.07%
Drannik Ballistae Standard Extremely Rare 2 18.18% 0.15%
Korteth, Crimson Carrier Elite Extremely Rare 2 18.18% 0.15%
Sha'din Hypergrid Boss Extremely Rare 1 9.09% 0.07%
Silthon Queen Elite Extremely Rare 3 27.27% 0.22%
Telarys Carrier Elite Extremely Rare 1 9.09% 0.07%
XRP - Prototype Elite Extremely Rare 1 9.09% 0.07%
Dark Arms Carrier Standard Rare 3 8.11% 0.22%
Lazuli Fabrication Plant Elite Rare 8 21.62% 0.60%
Lazuli Refinery Center Elite Rare 15 40.54% 1.12%
Okkilor, Drannik Hub Elite Rare 1 2.70% 0.07%
Reynard, Lazuli Titan Elite Rare 3 8.11% 0.22%
Rogue Labpod Standard Rare 3 8.11% 0.22%
T.O. Troop Carrier Standard Rare 3 8.11% 0.22%
Xavox, Strill Punisher Elite Rare 1 2.70% 0.07%
Blade Harvester Standard Uncommon 7 4.86% 0.52%
Crimson Tyrant Standard Uncommon 19 13.19% 1.42%
Dark Trafficker Standard Uncommon 21 14.58% 1.57%
Lazuli Harrower Standard Uncommon 7 4.86% 0.52%
Mylari Extractor Standard Uncommon 8 5.56% 0.60%
RSL Siege Cannon Standard Uncommon 13 9.03% 0.97%
Sabre Gunship Standard Uncommon 3 2.08% 0.22%
Sha'din Penetrator Standard Uncommon 17 11.81% 1.27%
Shadin Shockfighter Standard Uncommon 12 8.33% 0.90%
Stryll Desolator Standard Uncommon 5 3.47% 0.37%
Stryll Trapper Standard Uncommon 32 22.22% 2.40%

Oh, the Troop carriers - 1 QSE and 2 Terraformers.

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Thu Jul 28, 2011 2:56 am
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Wow............ i don't see Graxis in that list.... how much scan did you have when doing this?
Also don't see Rethion

Need at least 600 scan to see all NPCs

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Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:51 am
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Commons you had:
Crimson Flamehawk Standard Common 255 22.29% 19.09%
Dark Runner Standard Common 251 21.94% 18.79%
Rogue Data Analyzer Standard Common 185 16.17% 13.85%
Rogue Tech Collector Standard Common 182 15.91% 13.62%
Sha'din Charger Standard Common 271 23.69% 20.28%

My actual observations on a larger data set with less options (no data analyzer, almost no elites, rank > 1000) is 87% commons, with flamehawk/charger/runner at about 24-25% (but all basically the same), and tech collector at 18-19%. So, the good news is a new common like an analyzer or chron shifter pulls from the % of things like flamehawks/tech collectors. Tech collectors/data analyzers appear to be 0.7 of the spawn rate of the main commons.

Rares you had:
T.O. Troop Carrier Standard Rare 3 8.11% 0.22%
Dark Arms Carrier Standard Rare 3 8.11% 0.22%
Rogue Labpod Standard Rare 3 8.11% 0.22%

Okkilor, Drannik Hub Elite Rare 1 2.70% 0.07%
Xavox, Strill Punisher Elite Rare 1 2.70% 0.07%
Reynard, Lazuli Titan Elite Rare 3 8.11% 0.22%

Lazuli Fabrication Plant Elite Rare 8 21.62% 0.60%
Lazuli Refinery Center Elite Rare 15 40.54% 1.12%

Rares for me (note: none of the elites I could see anymore): TO Carrier/Labpod/Dark Arms Carrier were all 0.33% (about 1:300 to 1:320). So here I would expect about 4 of each. However, if it was allocated based on rarity, then you would have gotten all those elites into standard rare npcs, which would be 28+9 instead of 9, which isn't the case. I think fabs and refineries are in a different class, the other elites may affect the standard rare spawn rates.

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Thu Jul 28, 2011 5:01 am
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Lone.Lycan wrote:
Wow............ i don't see Graxis in that list.... how much scan did you have when doing this?
Also don't see Rethion

Need at least 600 scan to see all NPCs


Around 2500 scan. So I should be seeing them all. Bad luck on the Graxis and Rethions... :/

BinaryMan wrote:
Rares for me (note: none of the elites I could see anymore): TO Carrier/Labpod/Dark Arms Carrier were all 0.33% (about 1:300 to 1:320). So here I would expect about 4 of each. However, if it was allocated based on rarity, then you would have gotten all those elites into standard rare npcs, which would be 28+9 instead of 9, which isn't the case. I think fabs and refineries are in a different class, the other elites may affect the standard rare spawn rates.


We may be talking around a point... I had 28 "Rare" and 9 "Extremely Rare". I'm counting those as separate categories. I'm just guessing on the easiest method that might have been used to code the spawn rates - two lists. One of commonality classes, and one of ships within that class. I suppose he could have done it another way.

Do you have as many rares as I have? If you have fewer available rares to choose from, you may well end up with a higher percentage of the rares we share in common.

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Thu Jul 28, 2011 4:22 pm
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No, I removed the ext. rares from the list. Assuming all those I listed are just rares , and I think they are, you do have over 30. You need more data to tell, but your rare standard npcs appear to be a bit lower than mine. If you continue and record for 3000 npcs, you should be "around" 7-10 of each standard matched rare (the 3 I care about).

I tend to believe each npc is weighted randomization; for example if it was like:

charger = 100
data anlyzer = 70
dark arms carrier = 1

You would do random(1 to sum[all]) -> random(1 to 171) , 1-1 would be dark arms, 2-71 would be data analyzer, 72-171 would be charger. So, dark arms spawn rate is 1:171 here.

Now, what if I remove data analyzer ? Then dark arms goes to 1:101 (higher). The actual situation I think is similar, if you add/remove stuff from the mix, the rates will change. So, your mix may cause lower spawn rates on the TO Carrier etc.

One can remove the tech collector, and add a few mission npcs (as long as you leave the mission open), the tradeoff is higher xp but lower spawns of standard rare npcs (I think).

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Sat Jul 30, 2011 3:56 am
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This will be my last post with data. I tracked 2000 contiguous NPC battles taking me from level 501 through level 545. The only non-standard ship I have is the Rogue Data Analyzer, which I expect a lot of folks on my level have kept active for the RP.

Here are the results of the effort:


Ship Name Type Rarity # Of Rarity Of Total
Crimson Flamehawk Standard Common 383 22.35% 19.15%
Dark Runner Standard Common 390 22.75% 19.50%
Rogue Data Analyzer Standard Common 273 15.93% 13.65%
Rogue Tech Collector Standard Common 294 17.15% 14.70%
Sha'din Charger Standard Common 374 21.82% 18.70%
Dark Command Nexus Boss Extremely Rare 3 13.04% 0.15%
Dark MegaComplex Boss Extremely Rare 1 4.35% 0.05%
Drannik Ballistae Standard Extremely Rare 3 13.04% 0.15%
Korteth, Crimson Carrier Elite Extremely Rare 2 8.70% 0.10%
Rethion, Lazuli Superhauler Elite Extremely Rare 1 4.35% 0.05%
Sha'din Hypergrid Boss Extremely Rare 1 4.35% 0.05%
Silthon Hive Colony Boss Extremely Rare 2 8.70% 0.10%
Silthon Queen Elite Extremely Rare 5 21.74% 0.25%
Telarys Carrier Elite Extremely Rare 1 4.35% 0.05%
XRP - Prototype Elite Extremely Rare 4 17.39% 0.20%
Dark Arms Carrier Standard Rare 3 6.12% 0.15%
Lazuli Fabrication Plant Elite Rare 15 30.61% 0.75%
Lazuli Refinery Center Elite Rare 16 32.65% 0.80%
Okkilor, Drannik Hub Elite Rare 1 2.04% 0.05%
Reynard, Lazuli Titan Elite Rare 3 6.12% 0.15%
Rogue Labpod Standard Rare 6 12.24% 0.30%
T.O. Troop Carrier Standard Rare 3 6.12% 0.15%
Xavox, Strill Punisher Elite Rare 2 4.08% 0.10%
Blade Harvester Standard Uncommon 10 4.67% 0.50%
Crimson Tyrant Standard Uncommon 25 11.68% 1.25%
Dark Trafficker Standard Uncommon 32 14.95% 1.60%
Lazuli Harrower Standard Uncommon 11 5.14% 0.55%
Mylari Extractor Standard Uncommon 11 5.14% 0.55%
RSL Siege Cannon Standard Uncommon 19 8.88% 0.95%
Sabre Gunship Standard Uncommon 7 3.27% 0.35%
Sha'din Penetrator Standard Uncommon 27 12.62% 1.35%
Shadin Shockfighter Standard Uncommon 17 7.94% 0.85%
Stryll Desolator Standard Uncommon 9 4.21% 0.45%
Stryll Trapper Standard Uncommon 46 21.50% 2.30%

Also, percentages based on Rarity:

Commons 1714 85.70%
E Rare 23 1.15%
Rare 49 2.45%
Uncomm 214 10.70%

Enjoy the Data!

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Fri Aug 12, 2011 3:34 am
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